Kenya is a country in East Africa with a southeastern coastline along the Indian Ocean. Low plateaus extend inland from the coast to mountain ranges in the southwest of the country. The coast is typically hot and humid, whilst the north and northeast are hot and arid, and the highlands experience cooler temperatures. Population and agricultural land are mainly concentrated in Kenya’s western, central, and coastal regions. The country is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and is exposed to natural hazards, particularly floods and droughts (GRID Geneva, n.d.). 

Across all emission scenarios, Kenya’s average annual temperature is projected to rise by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels (World Bank Group 2021). Precipitation is expected to remain highly variable, with extreme rainfall events increasing frequency, duration, and intensity (ibid.). Climate change is likely to increase both flood risk and the likelihood of drought in some areas (ibid.). Extreme rainfall may also increase the risk of mudslides and landslides, particularly in mountainous regions (ibid.). Kenya’s largely rain-fed agricultural sector is central to the country’s economy and food security but remains highly vulnerable to climate change (GRID Geneva, n.d.). Seasonal rainfall variability already has severe impacts on the livelihoods of small-scale farmers and is expected to worsen with climate change (ibid.). Sea level rise threatens coastal communities and key sectors such as fisheries, shipping, and tourism. Mountain glaciers that supply water for nearly 60 percent of the country’s hydropower and support large areas of agricultural production are expected to disappear in the next 30 years, posing risks to energy, food, and water security (ibid). 

Kenya aims to increase the share of renewable energy in its power generation mix (Republic of Kenya,  2020). However, coal use may increase in the coming years, with two new coal power plants under consideration.